题 目：Foreign direct investment and the domestic capital stock: Heterogeneous spillover effects and the role of institutions
主讲人：Dr Michael S. Delgado，Assistant Professor，美国普渡大学经济学系
时 间：12月11 日 下午15:00-17:00
Michael Delgado received his Ph.D. in economics from Binghamton University. His expertise is in nonparametric econometrics, environmental economics, and economic growth. His current research focuses on developing and applying semiparametric and nonparametric instrumental variables regression estimators to economic policy issues that include evaluating the success of voluntary pollution abatement programs, consumer demand for hybrid cars, and the effects of education and institutions on economic development.
We focus on the interactions between institutions and foreign direct investment (FDI), and analyze their implications for domestic investment using a large panel data on developed and developing countries. We build on the few existing studies mainly by (i) using a generalized semiparametric analysis to model heterogeneity across countries and time that is induced by institutional factors and unobservable country and year effects, and (ii) investigating the causal relationship between inbound and outbound FDI and domestic investment using economic conditions in the major trading partners as instrumental variables, and a variety of other techniques capable of mitigating any simultaneity bias. In stark contrast to previous studies, we find that across many developed and developing countries, inbound FDI has significant, heterogeneous complementarity effects on domestic investment. The effect of outbound FDI on domestic investment is quite fluid: substitution and complementarity exist between outbound FDI and domestic investment, and depend on country, time horizon, and aspect of institutional quality. In countries where outbound FDI and domestic investment are substitutes, the estimates are significantly smaller than unity and consequently do not support the hypothesis that one dollar of outbound FDI reduces domestic investment by one dollar. We find that any effect of FDI on domestic investment is stronger in developing than developed economies. We further show that institutions play a nonlinear and nontrivial role by inducing heterogeneity in the relationship between FDI and domestic investment.